Understanding the Chilli Forecast

Chilli Forecast Data

Today's Chilli Forecast


2,000-4,000 SHU

Low-Moderate. 6-7 mph.

What is Chilli Forecasting?

Since the dawn of history man has been fascinated with predicting the future. From horoscopes and astrology to meteorology and astronomy, we continue to strive for a greater understanding of what the future holds for us. Science has looked outward, for evidence-based systems that are robust and accurate, and this approach has won over the inward-looking mystical approaches of non-scientific fortune-telling. But increasingly, the inward-looking science of chilliology, in the form of chilli forecasting, is being seen as a solution.

Although not an exact science, even more sensitive than weather forecasting to the uncertainties that arise because of chaos theory, the modern science of chilli forecasting uses complex algorithms derived from pattern tracking equations and trend analysis combined with statistical probability determinations to provide as robust as possible a measure of the likely prevalent chilli heat and spiciness for the days to come, which is interpreted through the Scrichfort Scale.

The Scrichfort Scale

So that chilli forecasts can be more easily understood and interpreted by the general public, in 2011 the Scrichfort Scale was agreed as the International Standard Index for chilli forecasting. The Scrichfort Scale, as its name implies, combines features of the Scoville, Beaufort and Richter Scales to interpolate chilli data readings. Using a scale from 0 (zero) to 12 (twelve), the Scrichfort Scale provides a composite interpretation of prevailing chilli conditions that everyone can easily understand.

See the Scrichfort Scale in more detail.
The Chilliometer The chilliometer is used as a graphical display of the day's chilli forecast

The Origins of Chilliology

Chilli forecasting has not always been a reliable or accurate science. Before Charles Babbage produced his first predictive chilli engine, chilliology was little different to fortune telling or tarot reading, except it used more chillies. Its origins in fact lie in the Central American equivalent of tealeaf reading, which was a notoriously unreliable forecasting method even though the tea was made with extra hot Jalapenos. It is only since computers have come to be widely used that the multiple complex calculations required have been able to be made, enabling more accurate forecasts to be achieved.

Chillies and Climate Change

It is a common misconception that excessive chilli heat contributes directly to climate change, although certain indirect relationships are likely to occur. However, chilli heat does contribute towards global chilli warming, a similar phenomenon reflected in the general tendency for food to become progressively less bland with time. We have seen salad vegetables become increasingly exotic - the simple piece of lettuce on the side of your plate, for example, progressing over time to the alfalfa and lamb's lettuce of today. But perhaps the most striking example is the evolution of the UK's favourite food from meat and two veg to chicken tikka masala - an increase of +1.5 on the Scrichfort Scale in only fifty years. Should this trend continue unabated, we can expect intolerable chilli heat conditions in a hundred years time - a situation that many feel should be addressed before our national dish is transformed to radish vindaloo.

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